Forget the SOTU, who’s filed for the Kentucky House?

By Richard Nelson

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January 29, 2014

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Did you watch the State of the Union address last night?  I thought so. How about a quick read on politics closer to home? Now that the filing deadline for the Nov. 4 election is over, its time for some analysis.  And oh, how the political analysts, including yours truly, are having a field day.  Who’s filed? Where are the most heated races? And which party has the best candidates?

Here’s the skinny: A total of 96 Republican candidates have filed to run for state House seats, an apparent record. Altogether, 90 Democrats have filed for the state House. Twenty Democrat incumbents will go unopposed while 18 Republicans will go unopposed. There are six races fielded by members of only one party—three for each party. This means that 31 Democratic House seats are in play while a total of 23 Republican seats are in play. Chalk up a favorable margin of +8 for Republicans.

Interestingly, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning polling firm recently found that on a generic ballot for state House races, voters favored the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate by a margin of +8.  1921 was the last time the GOP controlled the Kentucky House. 2014 is shaping up to be their best shot at retaking the majority. 

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Director, Commonwealth Policy Center